This notebook contains a set of analyses for analyzing Phil’s boardgamegeek collection. The bulk of the analysis is focused on building a user-specific predictive model to predict the games that the specified user is likely to own. This enables us to ask questions like, based on the games the user currently owns, what games are a good fit for their collection? What upcoming games are they likely to purchase?
We can look at a basic description of the number of games that the user owns, has rated, has previously owned, etc.
What years has the user owned/rated games from? While we can’t see when a user added or removed a game from their collection, we can look at their collection by the years in which their games were published.
We can look at the most frequent types of categories, mechanics, designers, and artists that appear in a user’s collection.
We’ll examine predictive models trained on a user’s collection for games published through 2020. How many games has the user owned/rated/played in the training set (games prior to 2020)?
username | dataset | period | games_owned | games_rated |
Phil | training | published before 2020 | 121 | 128 |
Phil | validation | published 2020 | 20 | 12 |
Phil | test | published after 2020 | 5 | 0 |
The main outcome we will be modeling for the user is owned, which refers to whether the user currently owns or has a previously owned a game in their collection. Our goal is to train a predictive model to learn the probability that a user will add a game to their collection based on its observable features. This amounts to looking at historical data and looking to find patterns that exist between features of games and games present in the user’s collection.
One of the models we trained was a decision tree, which looks for decision rules that can be used to separate games the user owns from games they don’t. The resulting model produces a decision corresponding to yes or no statements: to explain why the model predicts the user to own game, we start at the top of the tree and follow the rules that were learned from the training data.
Note: the tree below has been further pruned to make it easier to visualize.
Decision trees are highly interpretible models that are easy to train and can identify important interactions and nonlinearities present in the data. Individual trees have the drawback of being less predictive than other common models, but it can be useful to look at them to gain some understanding of key predictors and relationships found in the training data.
We can examine coefficients from another model we trained, which is a logistic regression with elastic net regularization (which I will refer to as a penalized logistic regression). Positive values indicate that a feature increases a user’s probability of owning/rating a game, while negative values indicate a feature decreases the probability. To be precise, the coefficients indicate the effect of a particular feature on the log-odds of a user owning a game.
Why did the model identify these features? We can make density plots of the important features for predicting whether the user owned a game. Blue indicates the density for games owned by the user, while grey indicates the density for games not owned by the user.
Binary predictors can be difficult to see with this visualization, so we can also directly examine the percentage of games in a user’s collection with a predictor vs the percentage of all games with that predictor.
% of Games with Feature | ||||
username | Feature | User_Collection | All_Games | Ratio |
Phil | Capstone Games | 4.1% | 0.1% | 38.72 |
Phil | Space Cowboys | 5.0% | 0.2% | 27.88 |
Phil | Fantasy Flight Games | 19.8% | 1.1% | 18.41 |
Phil | Asmodee | 31.4% | 2.5% | 12.74 |
Phil | CMON Global Limited | 4.1% | 0.4% | 11.78 |
Phil | Renegade Game Studios | 3.3% | 0.4% | 8.34 |
Phil | ZMan Games | 11.6% | 1.4% | 8.25 |
Phil | Map Continental National Scale | 14.9% | 1.9% | 7.89 |
Phil | Race | 7.4% | 1.0% | 7.66 |
Phil | Artist Klemens Franz | 4.1% | 0.6% | 6.89 |
Phil | Pegasus Spiele | 13.2% | 2.2% | 6.11 |
Phil | Murder Mystery | 7.4% | 1.5% | 5.05 |
Phil | Collectible Components | 6.6% | 1.8% | 3.77 |
Phil | Deduction Game | 14.9% | 5.1% | 2.93 |
Phil | Food Cooking | 3.3% | 1.2% | 2.78 |
Phil | Movement Points | 2.5% | 2.3% | 1.07 |
Before predicting games in upcoming years, we can examine how well the model did and what games it liked in the training set. In this case, we used resampling techniques (cross validation) to ensure that the model had not seen a game before making its predictions.
Displaying the 100 games from the training set with the highest probability of ownership, highlighting in blue games the user has owned.
Rank | Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1 | 2017 | 233078 | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | 0.936 | yes |
2 | 2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.912 | no |
3 | 2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.884 | no |
4 | 2016 | 205637 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | 0.840 | yes |
5 | 2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.819 | no |
6 | 2019 | 276025 | Maracaibo | 0.809 | yes |
7 | 2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.764 | no |
8 | 1999 | 552 | Bus | 0.760 | no |
9 | 2012 | 124742 | Android: Netrunner | 0.721 | no |
10 | 2014 | 148228 | Splendor | 0.669 | no |
11 | 2011 | 96848 | Mage Knight Board Game | 0.640 | no |
12 | 2004 | 9609 | War of the Ring | 0.615 | no |
13 | 2017 | 221107 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | 0.613 | no |
14 | 2016 | 176083 | Hit Z Road | 0.593 | no |
15 | 2017 | 174430 | Gloomhaven | 0.592 | yes |
16 | 2010 | 25292 | Merchants & Marauders | 0.578 | yes |
17 | 2000 | 478 | Citadels | 0.572 | no |
18 | 2019 | 269385 | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth | 0.541 | yes |
19 | 2019 | 281946 | Aftermath | 0.511 | no |
20 | 2014 | 145371 | Three Kingdoms Redux | 0.497 | no |
21 | 2015 | 175878 | 504 | 0.459 | no |
22 | 2015 | 181530 | Runebound (Third Edition) | 0.449 | no |
23 | 2019 | 270971 | Era: Medieval Age | 0.438 | no |
24 | 2012 | 104162 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | 0.435 | no |
25 | 2012 | 121921 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | 0.435 | no |
26 | 2011 | 103343 | A Game of Thrones: The Board Game (Second Edition) | 0.434 | no |
27 | 2008 | 37111 | Battlestar Galactica: The Board Game | 0.429 | no |
28 | 2017 | 162886 | Spirit Island | 0.416 | no |
29 | 2013 | 127024 | Room 25 | 0.402 | no |
30 | 2016 | 167791 | Terraforming Mars | 0.397 | no |
31 | 2012 | 120677 | Terra Mystica | 0.394 | yes |
32 | 2015 | 170216 | Blood Rage | 0.383 | no |
33 | 2010 | 62219 | Dominant Species | 0.378 | no |
34 | 2018 | 252328 | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | 0.363 | yes |
35 | 2015 | 182694 | Watson & Holmes | 0.362 | yes |
36 | 2018 | 260428 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | 0.346 | yes |
37 | 2017 | 190082 | Whitehall Mystery | 0.338 | yes |
38 | 2019 | 283863 | The Magnificent | 0.335 | no |
39 | 2019 | 285774 | Marvel Champions: The Card Game | 0.332 | yes |
40 | 2012 | 123096 | Space Cadets | 0.332 | yes |
41 | 1982 | 2511 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Thames Murders & Other Cases | 0.319 | yes |
42 | 2018 | 244711 | Newton | 0.318 | no |
43 | 2004 | 9440 | Maharaja: The Game of Palace Building in India | 0.315 | no |
44 | 2011 | 59959 | Letters from Whitechapel | 0.302 | yes |
45 | 2008 | 38453 | Space Alert | 0.302 | no |
46 | 2014 | 164928 | Orléans | 0.294 | no |
47 | 2009 | 54043 | Jaipur | 0.291 | no |
48 | 2017 | 232918 | Fallout | 0.288 | no |
49 | 2016 | 205059 | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | 0.280 | yes |
50 | 2017 | 221805 | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | 0.276 | no |
51 | 1995 | 112 | Condottiere | 0.275 | no |
52 | 2010 | 70512 | Luna | 0.272 | no |
53 | 2003 | 6472 | A Game of Thrones | 0.271 | no |
54 | 2010 | 73439 | Troyes | 0.269 | yes |
55 | 2014 | 159508 | AquaSphere | 0.269 | no |
56 | 2016 | 204305 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | 0.266 | yes |
57 | 2010 | 65200 | Asteroyds | 0.264 | no |
58 | 2019 | 286096 | Tapestry | 0.263 | no |
59 | 2012 | 104710 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | 0.260 | no |
60 | 2008 | 30549 | Pandemic | 0.259 | no |
61 | 2009 | 39683 | At the Gates of Loyang | 0.258 | no |
62 | 2017 | 188920 | This War of Mine: The Board Game | 0.257 | no |
63 | 2017 | 234671 | Pandemic: Rising Tide | 0.252 | no |
64 | 2019 | 266507 | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated | 0.252 | no |
65 | 2018 | 245638 | Coimbra | 0.251 | no |
66 | 2005 | 18723 | Aye, Dark Overlord! The Red Box | 0.245 | no |
67 | 2012 | 111341 | The Great Zimbabwe | 0.243 | no |
68 | 2011 | 70919 | Takenoko | 0.243 | no |
69 | 1997 | 42 | Tigris & Euphrates | 0.241 | no |
70 | 2017 | 184151 | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | 0.239 | no |
71 | 2014 | 157403 | Black Fleet | 0.237 | no |
72 | 2008 | 33107 | Senji | 0.235 | no |
73 | 2015 | 146508 | T.I.M.E Stories | 0.232 | no |
74 | 2019 | 271896 | Star Wars: Outer Rim | 0.230 | no |
75 | 2010 | 73171 | Earth Reborn | 0.224 | no |
76 | 2009 | 40692 | Small World | 0.224 | no |
77 | 2017 | 223931 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | 0.223 | yes |
78 | 2018 | 254591 | Heroes of Terrinoth | 0.219 | no |
79 | 2016 | 156858 | Black Orchestra | 0.218 | no |
80 | 2005 | 12493 | Twilight Imperium: Third Edition | 0.218 | yes |
81 | 2008 | 39463 | Cosmic Encounter | 0.216 | yes |
82 | 2013 | 146278 | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | 0.215 | no |
83 | 2017 | 238065 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | 0.214 | no |
84 | 2006 | 14808 | Marvel Heroes | 0.211 | no |
85 | 2016 | 169786 | Scythe | 0.209 | no |
86 | 2013 | 146021 | Eldritch Horror | 0.203 | no |
87 | 2011 | 42776 | Gears of War: The Board Game | 0.201 | no |
88 | 2005 | 15987 | Arkham Horror | 0.198 | no |
89 | 2015 | 181304 | Mysterium | 0.196 | no |
90 | 1998 | 3 | Samurai | 0.193 | no |
91 | 2018 | 257499 | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | 0.189 | no |
92 | 2016 | 205716 | New Angeles | 0.188 | no |
93 | 2019 | 280480 | Crystal Palace | 0.188 | no |
94 | 2018 | 313010 | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | 0.186 | no |
95 | 2016 | 198928 | Pandemic: Iberia | 0.183 | no |
96 | 2017 | 220775 | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | 0.182 | no |
97 | 2018 | 199792 | Everdell | 0.180 | no |
98 | 2010 | 77130 | Sid Meier's Civilization: The Board Game | 0.176 | no |
99 | 2019 | 253344 | Cthulhu: Death May Die | 0.176 | no |
100 | 2017 | 195539 | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | 0.174 | no |
This section contains a variety of visualizations and metrics for assessing the performance of the model(s) during resampling. If you’re not particularly interested in predictive modeling, skip down further to the predictions from the model.
An easy way to examine the performance of classification model is to view a separation plot. We plot the predicted probabilities from the model for every game (from resampling) from lowest to highest. We then overlay a blue line for any game that the user does own. A good classifier is one that is able to separate the blue (games owned by the user) from the white (games not owned by the user), with most of the blue occurring at the highest probabilities (right side of the chart).
We can more formally assess how well each model did in resampling by looking at the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. A perfect model would receive a score of 1, while a model that cannot predict the outcome will default to a score of 0.5. The extent to which something is a good score depends on the setting, but generally anything in the .8 to .9 range is very good while the .7 to .8 range is perfectly acceptable.
wflow_id | .metric | .estimator | .estimate |
GLM | roc_auc | binary | 0.93 |
Decision Tree | roc_auc | binary | 0.64 |
Another way to think about the model performance is to view its lift, or its ability to detect the positive outcomes over that of a null model. High lift indicates the model can much more quickly find all of the positive outcomes (in this case, games owned or played by the user), while a model with no lift is no better than random guessing. A gains chart is another way to view this.
While we are probably more interested in the lift provided by the models to evaluate their efficacy, we can also explore the optimal cutpoint if we wanted to define a hard threshold for identifying games a user will own vs not own.
The threshold we select depends on how we much we care about false positives (games the model predicts that the user does not own) vs false negatives (games the user owns that the model does not predict). We can toggle threshold to
Finally, we can understand the performance of the model by examining its calibration. If the model assigns a probability of 5%, how often does the outcome actually occur? A well calibrated model is one in which the predicted probabilities reflect the probabilities we would observe in the actual data. We can assess the calibration of a model by grouping its predictions into bins and assessing how often we observe the outcome versus how often our model expects to observe the outcome.
A model that is well calibrated will closely follow the dashed line - its expected probabilities match that of the observed probabilities. A model that consistently underestimates the probability of the event will be over this dashed line, be a while a model that overestimates the probability will be under the dashed line.
What games does the model think Phil is most likely to own that are not in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2013 | 143693 | Glass Road | 0.912 | no |
2018 | 205896 | Rising Sun | 0.884 | no |
2016 | 187645 | Star Wars: Rebellion | 0.819 | no |
2017 | 220308 | Gaia Project | 0.764 | no |
1999 | 552 | Bus | 0.760 | no |
What games does the model think Phil is least likely to own that are in their collection?
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
1876 | 521 | Crokinole | 0.001 | yes |
2016 | 203417 | Exit: The Game – The Secret Lab | 0.001 | yes |
2019 | 247367 | Air, Land & Sea | 0.001 | yes |
2018 | 244228 | Reef | 0.002 | yes |
2004 | 11971 | Cockroach Poker | 0.002 | yes |
Top 25 games most likely to be owned by the user in each year, highlighting in blue the games that the user has owned.
rank | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 | 2018 | 2019 |
1 | Android: Netrunner | Glass Road | Splendor | 504 | Arkham Horror: The Card Game | Twilight Imperium: Fourth Edition | Rising Sun | Maracaibo |
2 | Descent: Journeys in the Dark (Second Edition) | Room 25 | Three Kingdoms Redux | Runebound (Third Edition) | Star Wars: Rebellion | Gaia Project | Star Wars: X-Wing (Second Edition) | The Lord of the Rings: Journeys in Middle-Earth |
3 | Robinson Crusoe: Adventures on the Cursed Island | Tash-Kalar: Arena of Legends | Orléans | Blood Rage | Hit Z Road | Pandemic Legacy: Season 2 | Pandemic: Fall of Rome | Aftermath |
4 | Terra Mystica | Eldritch Horror | AquaSphere | Watson & Holmes | Terraforming Mars | Gloomhaven | Newton | Era: Medieval Age |
5 | Space Cadets | Lewis & Clark: The Expedition | Black Fleet | T.I.M.E Stories | Mansions of Madness: Second Edition | Spirit Island | Coimbra | The Magnificent |
6 | Wiz-War (Eighth Edition) | Coal Baron | Fields of Arle | Mysterium | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Jack the Ripper & West End Adventures | Whitehall Mystery | Heroes of Terrinoth | Marvel Champions: The Card Game |
7 | The Great Zimbabwe | Impulse | DungeonQuest Revised Edition | The Voyages of Marco Polo | Black Orchestra | Fallout | Arkham Horror (Third Edition) | Tapestry |
8 | Il Vecchio | BANG! The Dice Game | Star Wars: Imperial Assault | Mombasa | Scythe | Breaking Bad: The Board Game | Cosmic Encounter: 42nd Anniversary Edition | Clank!: Legacy – Acquisitions Incorporated |
9 | Star Wars: X-Wing Miniatures Game | Bruxelles 1893 | Akrotiri | Fury of Dracula (Third/Fourth Edition) | New Angeles | This War of Mine: The Board Game | Everdell | Star Wars: Outer Rim |
10 | Kemet | Crossing | Ultimate Werewolf | Elysium | Pandemic: Iberia | Pandemic: Rising Tide | Lords of Hellas | Crystal Palace |
11 | Archipelago | 1775: Rebellion | Arcadia Quest | A Game of Thrones: The Card Game (Second Edition) | Codenames: Deep Undercover | Legend of the Five Rings: The Card Game | Narcos: The Board Game | Cthulhu: Death May Die |
12 | Keyflower | Warhammer: Diskwars | Irish Gauge | Porta Nigra | Game of Thrones: The Iron Throne | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Carlton House & Queen's Park | Ultimate Werewolf Legacy | Azul: Summer Pavilion |
13 | Love Letter | Cappuccino | Sons of Anarchy: Men of Mayhem | Star Wars: Armada | Citadels | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: Vanishing from Hyde Park | Shadows: Amsterdam | Last Bastion |
14 | Zombicide | Nauticus | Warhammer 40,000: Conquest | Mission: Red Planet (Second Edition) | Inis | Codenames: Disney – Family Edition | The World of SMOG: Rise of Moloch | TIME Stories Revolution: Damien 1958 NT |
15 | Mafia: Vendetta | Wildcatters | Deus | Forbidden Stars | Pandemic: Reign of Cthulhu | The Godfather: Corleone's Empire | Azul: Stained Glass of Sintra | Tainted Grail: The Fall of Avalon |
16 | Rex: Final Days of an Empire | Rialto | Patchwork | Drakon (Fourth Edition) | Codenames: Pictures | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Fifth Avenue | Unlock!: Heroic Adventures | Hellenica: Story of Greece |
17 | Merchant of Venus (Second Edition) | Amerigo | Pandemic: The Cure | Bastion | Agricola (Revised Edition) | Azul | Concordia Venus | Ragusa |
18 | The Manhattan Project | BattleLore: Second Edition | Imperial Settlers | One Night Ultimate Werewolf: Daybreak | Coal Baron: The Great Card Game | Downforce | Root | Machi Koro Legacy |
19 | Clash of Cultures | This Is Not a Test: Post-Apocalyptic Skirmish Rules | Five Tribes | One Night Ultimate Vampire | Captain Sonar | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Temple of Ra | Betrayal Legacy | KeyForge: Age of Ascension |
20 | Libertalia | Patchistory | Gaïa | Zombicide Season 3: Rue Morgue | Bloodborne: The Card Game | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – Doo-Arann Dungeon | Treasure Island | Tiny Towns |
21 | Android: Infiltration | Blood Bound | The Witcher Adventure Game | Risk: Europe | Star Wars: Destiny | Codenames: Duet | Cosmic Run: Regeneration | Unlock!: Epic Adventures |
22 | Escape: The Curse of the Temple | City of Remnants | Colt Express | Warhammer Quest: The Adventure Card Game | Clank!: A Deck-Building Adventure | Summit: The Board Game | Renegade | Unlock!: Exotic Adventures – Expedition: Challenger |
23 | Seasons | Forbidden Desert | Istanbul | One Night Revolution | Dream Home | Altiplano | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – In Pursuit of Cabrakan | Trails of Tucana |
24 | Mice and Mystics | Concept | Sheriff of Nottingham | Through the Ages: A New Story of Civilization | DOOM: The Board Game | Stop Thief! | KeyForge: Call of the Archons | Caylus 1303 |
25 | The Palaces of Carrara | Concordia | VivaJava: The Coffee Game: The Dice Game | The King Is Dead | Covert | Unlock!: Escape Adventures – The Elite | Gingerbread House | Yukon Airways |
This is an interactive table for the model’s predictions for the training set (from resampling).
We’ll validate the model by looking at its predictions for games published in 2020. That is, how well did a model trained on a user’s collection through 2020 perform in predicting games for the user in 2020?
username | outcome | dataset | method | .metric | .estimate |
Phil | owned | validation | GLM | roc_auc | 0.893 |
Phil | owned | validation | Decision Tree | roc_auc | 0.701 |
Table of top 50 games from 2020, highlighting games that the user owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2020 | 291457 | Gloomhaven: Jaws of the Lion | 0.455 | yes |
2020 | 300001 | Renature | 0.320 | no |
2020 | 314040 | Pandemic Legacy: Season 0 | 0.300 | no |
2020 | 298572 | Cosmic Encounter Duel | 0.267 | no |
2020 | 296345 | Sherlock Holmes Consulting Detective: The Baker Street Irregulars | 0.194 | yes |
2020 | 256317 | Guild Master | 0.178 | no |
2020 | 271524 | TIME Stories Revolution: A Midsummer Night | 0.146 | no |
2020 | 302425 | Unlock!: Mythic Adventures | 0.144 | no |
2020 | 292333 | Cowboys II: Cowboys & Indians Edition | 0.135 | no |
2020 | 300322 | Hallertau | 0.127 | no |
2020 | 300877 | New York Zoo | 0.123 | yes |
2020 | 287742 | TIME Stories Revolution: The Hadal Project | 0.116 | no |
2020 | 312267 | Star Wars: Unlock! | 0.112 | no |
2020 | 246900 | Eclipse: Second Dawn for the Galaxy | 0.104 | no |
2020 | 327913 | Unlock!: Timeless Adventures – Arsène Lupin und der große weiße Diamant | 0.086 | no |
2020 | 316554 | Dune: Imperium | 0.077 | no |
2020 | 296151 | Viscounts of the West Kingdom | 0.067 | no |
2020 | 301880 | Raiders of Scythia | 0.065 | no |
2020 | 294788 | Conqueror: Final Conquest | 0.064 | no |
2020 | 184267 | On Mars | 0.061 | yes |
2020 | 293889 | Fallout Shelter: The Board Game | 0.060 | no |
2020 | 301767 | Mysterium Park | 0.057 | no |
2020 | 301919 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – North America | 0.056 | no |
2020 | 272739 | Clinic: Deluxe Edition | 0.053 | no |
2020 | 304285 | Infinity Gauntlet: A Love Letter Game | 0.052 | no |
2020 | 299592 | Beez | 0.051 | no |
2020 | 294484 | Unmatched: Cobble & Fog | 0.050 | yes |
2020 | 315060 | Unmatched: Buffy the Vampire Slayer | 0.050 | no |
2020 | 293296 | Splendor: Marvel | 0.048 | no |
2020 | 302723 | Forgotten Waters | 0.048 | yes |
2020 | 308652 | Age of Dogfights: WW1 | 0.045 | no |
2020 | 299179 | Chancellorsville 1863 | 0.045 | no |
2020 | 295905 | Cosmic Frog | 0.042 | no |
2020 | 304420 | Bonfire | 0.040 | no |
2020 | 302465 | Obsidia | 0.039 | no |
2020 | 325635 | Unmatched: Little Red Riding Hood vs. Beowulf | 0.038 | no |
2020 | 284777 | Unmatched: Jurassic Park – InGen vs Raptors | 0.038 | yes |
2020 | 306481 | Tawantinsuyu: The Inca Empire | 0.038 | no |
2020 | 302809 | Betrayal at Mystery Mansion | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 297486 | Ride the Rails | 0.037 | no |
2020 | 312251 | Curious Cargo | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 301716 | Glasgow | 0.036 | no |
2020 | 279537 | The Search for Planet X | 0.036 | yes |
2020 | 286749 | Hansa Teutonica: Big Box | 0.035 | yes |
2020 | 318084 | Furnace | 0.035 | no |
2020 | 294235 | Crime Zoom: His Last Card | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 321305 | Crime Zoom: Bird of Ill Omen | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 321306 | Crime Zoom: A Deadly Writer | 0.033 | no |
2020 | 256940 | Krosmaster: Blast | 0.032 | no |
2020 | 233262 | Tidal Blades: Heroes of the Reef | 0.032 | no |
We can then refit our model to the training and validation set in order to predict all upcoming games for the user.
Examine the top 100 upcoming games, highlighting in blue ones the user already owns.
Published | ID | Name | Pr(Owned) | Owned |
2022 | 331106 | The Witcher: Old World | 0.593 | no |
2022 | 349067 | The Lord of the Rings: The Card Game – Revised Core Set | 0.592 | no |
2021 | 343905 | Boonlake | 0.574 | yes |
2021 | 339484 | Savannah Park | 0.434 | no |
2021 | 340466 | Unfathomable | 0.402 | yes |
2022 | 310873 | Carnegie | 0.344 | no |
2021 | 285967 | Ankh: Gods of Egypt | 0.325 | yes |
2023 | 347909 | Rogue Angels: Legacy of the Burning Suns | 0.302 | no |
2021 | 256680 | Return to Dark Tower | 0.254 | no |
2021 | 344277 | Corrosion | 0.229 | no |
2021 | 342942 | Ark Nova | 0.224 | no |
2021 | 291859 | Riftforce | 0.217 | yes |
2022 | 317511 | Tindaya | 0.184 | no |
2022 | 295770 | Frosthaven | 0.152 | no |
2021 | 338980 | Eastern Empires | 0.139 | no |
2022 | 322524 | Bardsung | 0.120 | no |
2021 | 339906 | The Hunger | 0.106 | no |
2021 | 249277 | Brazil: Imperial | 0.104 | no |
2022 | 335764 | Unmatched: Battle of Legends, Volume Two | 0.103 | no |
2021 | 298102 | Roll Camera!: The Filmmaking Board Game | 0.103 | no |
2021 | 322708 | Descent: Legends of the Dark | 0.091 | no |
2021 | 304985 | Dark Ages: Holy Roman Empire | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 295535 | Dark Ages: Heritage of Charlemagne | 0.087 | no |
2021 | 342848 | World of Warcraft: Wrath of the Lich King | 0.081 | no |
2022 | 346199 | A Game of Thrones: B'Twixt | 0.074 | no |
2021 | 340237 | Wonder Book | 0.073 | no |
2021 | 338760 | Imperial Steam | 0.071 | no |
2021 | 325698 | Juicy Fruits | 0.064 | no |
2021 | 326804 | Rorschach | 0.064 | no |
2021 | 291572 | Oath: Chronicles of Empire and Exile | 0.063 | no |
2022 | 349793 | Age of Rome | 0.063 | no |
2021 | 311920 | Ultimate Werewolf: Extreme | 0.062 | no |
2021 | 299255 | Vienna Connection | 0.061 | no |
2021 | 348461 | Castle Break | 0.060 | no |
2021 | 324957 | The Snallygaster Situation: Kids on Bikes Board Game | 0.058 | no |
2021 | 331635 | Kameloot | 0.057 | no |
2022 | 283137 | Human Punishment: The Beginning | 0.057 | no |
2021 | 273330 | Bloodborne: The Board Game | 0.056 | no |
2021 | 338834 | MicroMacro: Crime City – Full House | 0.055 | no |
2021 | 306202 | Philosophia: Floating World | 0.055 | no |
2021 | 325022 | Coffee Traders | 0.053 | no |
2022 | 319807 | Shogun no Katana | 0.050 | no |
2022 | 251661 | Oathsworn: Into the Deepwood | 0.049 | no |
2021 | 339789 | Welcome to the Moon | 0.047 | no |
2022 | 273814 | Deliverance | 0.047 | no |
2021 | 291847 | Mantis Falls | 0.046 | no |
2023 | 312959 | Rallyman: DIRT | 0.043 | no |
2021 | 298383 | Golem | 0.043 | no |
2021 | 290236 | Canvas | 0.043 | no |
2022 | 317321 | Darkest Dungeon: The Board Game | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 314491 | Meadow | 0.041 | no |
2021 | 298378 | Maharaja | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 319792 | Fly-A-Way | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 336195 | League of Dungeoneers | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 298069 | Cubitos | 0.040 | no |
2021 | 334782 | Bayou Bash | 0.039 | no |
2021 | 325348 | Successors (Fourth Edition) | 0.039 | no |
2021 | 340909 | Gloomholdin' | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 350636 | Unlock!: Game Adventures | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 295785 | Euthia: Torment of Resurrection | 0.037 | no |
2021 | 347137 | Chronicles of Avel | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 263222 | Shards of the Jaguar | 0.036 | no |
2022 | 305096 | Endless Winter: Paleoamericans | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 339905 | Love Letter: Princess Princess Ever After | 0.036 | no |
2021 | 329670 | Pandemic: Hot Zone – Europe | 0.035 | no |
2022 | 326945 | Castles of Mad King Ludwig: Collector's Edition | 0.034 | no |
2021 | 340834 | Gravwell: 2nd Edition | 0.033 | no |
2021 | 303954 | Pax Viking | 0.032 | no |
2021 | 346965 | Azul: Queen's Garden | 0.032 | no |
2022 | 338067 | 6: Siege – The Board Game | 0.032 | no |
2021 | 313730 | Harsh Shadows | 0.031 | no |
2021 | 259962 | Stress Botics | 0.031 | no |
2023 | 274471 | Malhya: Lands of Legends | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 320960 | Roll In One | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 315937 | X-Men: Mutant Insurrection | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 319263 | One Card Dungeon | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 304783 | Hadrian's Wall | 0.030 | no |
2021 | 308989 | Bristol 1350 | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 309319 | Apogee | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 331549 | MiniQuest Adventures | 0.029 | no |
2021 | 260524 | Beyond Humanity: Colonies | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 304051 | Creature Comforts | 0.029 | no |
2022 | 308028 | Drop Drive | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 341169 | Great Western Trail (Second Edition) | 0.028 | no |
2022 | 299106 | Fractal: Beyond the Void | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 304324 | Dive | 0.028 | no |
2022 | 280726 | Legacies | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 324242 | Sheepy Time | 0.028 | no |
2021 | 301366 | Caves of Rwenzori | 0.027 | no |
2022 | 311988 | Frostpunk: The Board Game | 0.027 | no |
2022 | 300217 | Merchants of the Dark Road | 0.027 | no |
2021 | 316287 | Quest | 0.027 | no |
2021 | 340455 | King of the Valley | 0.026 | no |
2021 | 319899 | Decktective: Nightmare in the Mirror | 0.026 | no |
2022 | 340325 | Vagrantsong | 0.026 | no |
2022 | 331398 | Mythic Battles: Ragnarök | 0.025 | no |
2022 | 342900 | Earthborne Rangers | 0.024 | no |
2021 | 336794 | Galaxy Trucker | 0.024 | no |
2022 | 254127 | Europa Universalis: The Price of Power | 0.023 | no |
2021 | 281676 | Galactic Era | 0.023 | no |